Katharina V. Koelle

Associate Professor in the Department of Biology

Office: 
130 Science Drive, Room 137, Duke Box 90338, Durham, NC 27708
Campus Box: 
90338
Phone: 
(919) 660-9457
Fax: 
919-660-7293

Lab Site: http://sites.duke.edu/koelle/

Research Interests: 

My research focuses on the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases. I use a combination of mathematical and statistical approaches to understand the processes driving the disease dynamics of pathogens. My interests include the effect of climate on disease dynamics and the role that immune escape plays in the ecological dynamics of RNA viruses. Current projects focus on influenza, dengue, and norovirus.

My research focuses on the ecology and evolution of infectious diseases. I use a combination of mathematical and statistical approaches to understand the processes driving the disease dynamics of pathogens. My interests include developing models to improve our understanding of how immune escape and other viral phenotypes impact the ecological dynamics of RNA viruses, and, in turn, how these ecological dynamics create selection pressures on viral pathogens. Additional interests include developing within-host models of viral dynamics and evolution and fitting these models to empirical data. Current research projects focus primarily on influenza and dengue.

Education

  • Ph.D. 2005, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

  • BS 1997, Stanford University

Papers Published

The effective rate of influenza reassortment is limited during human infection., 2, 2017
Sobel Leonard, A; McClain, MT; Smith, GJD; Wentworth, DE; Halpin, RA; Lin, X; Ransier, A; Stockwell, TB; Das, SR; Gilbert, AS; Lambkin-Williams, R; Ginsburg, GS; Woods, CW; Koelle, K; Illingworth, CJR, PLoS pathogens. 13 vol. (2); pp. e1006203

Deep Sequencing of Influenza A Virus from a Human Challenge Study Reveals a Selective Bottleneck and Only Limited Intrahost Genetic Diversification., 12, 2016
Sobel Leonard, A; McClain, MT; Smith, GJD; Wentworth, DE; Halpin, RA; Lin, X; Ransier, A; Stockwell, TB; Das, SR; Gilbert, AS; Lambkin-Williams, R; Ginsburg, GS; Woods, CW; Koelle, K, Journal of virology. 90 vol. (24); pp. 11247-11258

Drivers of Inter-individual Variation in Dengue Viral Load Dynamics, 11, 2016
Ben-Shachar, R; Schmidler, S; Koelle, K, PLoS computational biology. 12 vol. (11); pp. e1005194-e1005194

The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study, 11, 2016
Flasche, S; Jit, M; Rodríguez-Barraquer, I; Coudeville, L; Recker, M; Koelle, K; Milne, G; Hladish, TJ; Perkins, TA; Cummings, DAT; Dorigatti, I; Laydon, DJ; España, G; Kelso, J; Longini, I; Lourenco, J; Pearson, CAB; Reiner, RC; Mier-y-Terán-Romero, L; Vannice, K; Ferguson, N, PLoS medicine. 13 vol. (11); pp. e1002181-e1002181

The effects of a deleterious mutation load on patterns of influenza A/H3N2's antigenic evolution in humans, 9, 2015
Koelle, K; Rasmussen, DA, eLife. 4

Minimal within-host dengue models highlight the specific roles of the immune response in primary and secondary dengue infections., 2, 2015
Ben-Shachar, R; Koelle, K, Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 12 vol. (103); pp. 20140886-20140886

Influenza: Prediction is worth a shot., 3, 2014
Koelle, K; Rasmussen, DA, Nature. 507 vol. (7490); pp. 47-48

Reconciling phylodynamics with epidemiology: the case of dengue virus in southern Vietnam., 2, 2014
Rasmussen, DA; Boni, MF; Koelle, K, Molecular Biology and Evolution. 31 vol. (2); pp. 258-271

Coalescent entanglement and the conditional dependence of the times to common ancestry of mutually exclusive pairs of individuals., 1, 2013
Wu, S; Koelle, K; Rodrigo, A, Journal of Heredity. 104 vol. (1); pp. 86-91

Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamics, 0, 2013
Scholle, SO; Ypma, RJF; Lloyd, AL; Koelle, K, American Naturalist. 182 vol. (4); pp. 494-513

Viral substitution rate variation can arise from the interplay between within-host and epidemiological dynamicssubstitution rates, 2013
Scholle, S.O., Ypma, R., Lloyd, A.L., Koelle, K., The American Naturalist. (2013) 182 vol. (4); pp. 494-513

The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population dynamics of antigenic immune escape., 2012
Luo, S; Reed, M; Mattingly, JC; Koelle, K, Journal of the Royal Society Interface. (2012) 9 vol. (75); pp. 2603-2613

Assessing the potential of a candidate dengue vaccine with mathematical modeling, 0, 2012
Koelle, WHO-VMIDVMGIK, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 6 vol. (3); pp. e1450

Navigating the devious course of evolution: the importance of mechanistic models for identifying eco-evolutionary dynamics in nature, 0, 2012
Luo, S; Koelle, K, The American Naturalist. 181 vol. (S58-S75);

Impact of cross-protective vaccines on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza, 2012
Arinaminpathy, N; Ratmann, O; Koelle, K; Epstein, SL; Price, GE; Viboud, C; Miller, MA; Grenfell, BT, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA. (2012) 109 vol. (8); pp. 3173-3177

Rates of coalescence for common epidemiological models at equilibrium, 2012
Koelle, K; Rasmussen, DA, Journal of the Royal Society Interface. (2012) 9 vol. (70); pp. 997-1007

Phylodynamic inference and model assessment with Approximate Bayesian Computation: influenza as a case study, 0, 2012
Ratmann, O; Donker, G; Meijer, A; Fraser, C; Koelle, K, PLoS Computational Biology. 8 vol. (12); pp. e1002835

The evolutionary dynamics of receptor binding avidity in influenza A: a mathematical model for a new antigenic drift hypothesis, 0, 2012
Yuan, H; Koelle, K, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.. 368 vol. (1614); pp. 20120204-

Viral phylodynamics, 2013
Volz, EM; Koelle, K; Bedford, T, PLoS Computational Biology. (2013) 9 vol. (3); pp. e1002947

Network perspectives on infectious disease dynamics, 2011
Meyers, LA; Kerr, B; Koelle, K, Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases. (2011) 2011 vol. (146765); pp. 2

Inference for nonlinear epidemiological models using genealogies and time series, 0, 2011
Rasmussen, DA; Ratmann, O; Koelle, K, PLoS computational biology. 7 vol. (8); pp. e1002136

A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses, 2011
Koelle, K; Ratmann, O; Rasmussen, DA; Pasour, V; Mattingly, J, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences. (2011) 278 vol. (1725); pp. 3723-3730

A two-tiered model for simulating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza., 9, 2010
Koelle, K; Khatri, P; Kamradt, M; Kepler, TB, Journal of the Royal Society Interface. 7 vol. (50); pp. 1257-1274

A two-tiered model for studying the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza, 0, 2010
Koelle, K., Khatri, P., Kamradt, M., Kepler, T., Journal of the Royal Society, Interface.

Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: Influenza as a case study, 0, 2009
Koelle, K; Kamradt, M; Pascual, M, Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics. 1 vol. (2); pp. 129-137

The impact of climate on the disease dynamics of cholera, 0, 2009
Koelle, K, Clinical Microbiology and Infection. 15 vol. (s1); pp. 29-31

The impact of climate on the disease dynamics of cholera, 0, 2009
Koelle, K, Clinical Microbiology and Infection. 15 vol. (SUPPL. 1); pp. 29-31

Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever, 0, 2008
Nagao, Y; Koelle, K, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA. 105 vol. (6); pp. 2238-2243

Capturing escape in infectious disease dynamics, 2008
Cobey, S; Koelle, K, Trends in Ecology & Evolution. (2008) 23 vol. (10); pp. 572-577

Shifting patterns: Malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland, 2008
Pascual, M; Cazelles, B; Bouma, MJ; Chaves, LF; Koelle, K, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences. (2008) 275 vol. (1631); pp. 123-132

Global patterns in seasonal activity of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral coexistence and latitudinal gradients, 0, 2007
Finkelman, BS; Viboud, C; Koelle, K; Ferrari, MJ; Bharti, N; Grenfell, BT, PloS one. 2 vol. (12); pp. e1296

Hyperinfectivity in cholera: A new mechanism for an old epidemiological model? [2], 0, 2006
Pascual, M; Koelle, K; Dobson, AP, PLoS medicine. 3 vol. (6); pp. 0931-0933

Hyperinfectivity in Cholera: A New Mechanism for an Old Epidemiological Model?, 2006
Pascual, M; Koelle, K; Dobson, A, PLoS Medicine. (2006) 3 vol. (6); pp. e280

Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics, 2006
Koelle, K; Pascual, M; Yunus, M, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences. (2006) 273 vol. (1603); pp. 2879-2886

Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza a (H3N2) in humans, 2006
Koelle, K; Cobey, S; Grenfell, B; Pascual, M, Science. (2006) 314 vol. (5807); pp. 1898-1903

Dispersal-induced desynchronization: From metapopulations to metacommunities, 2005
Koelle, K; Vandermeer, J, Ecology Letters. (2005) 8 vol. (2); pp. 167-175

Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change, 2005
Koelle, K; Pascual, M; Yunus, M, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London: Biological Sciences. (2005) 272 vol. (1566); pp. 971-977

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics, 2005
Koelle, K; Rodó, X; Pascual, M; Yunus, M; Mostafa, G, Nature. (2005) 436 vol. (7051); pp. 696-700

Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: A nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera, 2004
Koelle, K; Pascual, M, American Naturalist. (2004) 163 vol. (6); pp. 901-913

The effects of host contact network structure on pathogen diversity and strain structure, 2004
Buckee, CO; Koelle, K; Mustard, MJ; Gupta, S, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. (2004) 101 vol. (29); pp. 10839-10844

Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety, 2001
Blower, SM; Koelle, K; Kirschner, DE; Mills, J, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA. (2001) 98 vol. (6); pp. 3618-3623

Antibiotic resistance - To treat... [1], 1999
Blower, S; Koelle, K; Lietman, T, Nature Medicine. (1999) 5 vol. (4); pp. 358-

Book Chapters:

Man and Superman: Human Limitations, Innovation, and Emergence in Resource Competition in Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, 2004
R. Savit, K. Koelle, W. Treynor, R. Gonzalez

Health policy modeling: epidemic control, HIV vaccines and risky behavior in Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs, 0, 2002
S.M. Blower, K. Koelle, J. Mills

Awards

  • 2014 Brilliant 10, Popular Science

  • 2014 Thomas Langford Lectureship Award, Duke University

  • 2009 Elected to Faculty of 1000: Theoretical Ecology section, Faculty of 1000

  • 2008 PNAS Cozzarelli Prize, National Academy of Sciences

  • 2004 Rackham Outstanding Graduate Student Instructor award, Rackham Graduate School, University of Michigan

  • 2004 Volterra award, Ecological Society of America Theory Section

  • 2003 E.C.Pielou award, Ecological Society of America Statistical Ecology Section