2008

Cobey, S. & Koelle, K. (2008) Capturing escape in infectious disease dynamics. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 23(10), pp. 572-577. PDF

Nagao, Y. & Koelle, K. (2008) Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 105(6), pp. 2238-2243. PDF

Pascual, M., Cazelles, B., Bouma, M., Chaves. L., Koelle, K. (2008) Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Biological Sciences. 275. pp.123-132. PDF


(Publications prior to Duke)

2007

Finkelman, B., Viboud, C., Koelle, K., Ferrari, M., Bharti, N., Grenfell, B. (2007) Global Patterns in Seasonal Activity of Influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral Coexistence and Latitudinal Gradients. PLoS One. 2(12): e1296. PDF

2006

Koelle, K., Cobey, S., Grenfell, B., & Pascual, M. (2006) Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans. Science. 314. pp. 1898-1903. PDF

Koelle, K., Pascual, M., Yunus, M. (2006) Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Biological Sciences. 273. pp. 2879-2886. PDF

Pascual, M., Koelle, K., Dobson, A. (2006) Hyperinfectivity in Cholera: A New Mechanism for an Old Epidemiological Model? PLoS Medicine. 3 (6). p. e280. PDF

2005

Koelle, K., Rodó, X., Pascual, M., Yunus, M., & Mostafa, G. (2005) Refractory periods to climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature. 436. pp. 696-700. PDF

Koelle, K., Pascual, M., & Yunus, M. (2005) Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Biological Sciences. 272. pp. 971-977. PDF

Koelle, K. & Vandermeer, J. (2005) Dispersal-induced desynchronization: from metapopulations to metacommunities. Ecology Letters. 8(2). pp. 167-175. PDF

2004

Buckee, C., Koelle, K., Mustard, M. & Gupta, S. (2004) The effects of host contact network structure on pathogen diversity and strain structure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 101(29). pp.10839-10844. PDF

Koelle, K. & Pascual, M. (2004) Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. The American Naturalist 163(6), pp.901-913. PDF

Savit, R., Koelle, K., Treynor, W., Gonzalez, R. (2004) Man and Superman: Human Limitations, Innovation, and Emergence in Resource Competition in Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, eds. Tumer, K. & Wolpert, D. (Springer-Verlag, New York, NY).

pre-2004

Blower, S.M., Koelle, K., & Mills, J. (2002) in Quantitative Evaluation of HIV Prevention Programs, eds. Kaplan, E. H. & Brookmeyer, R. (Yale University Press, New Haven, CT).

Blower, S.M., Koelle, K., Kirschner, D.E., & Mills, J. (2001) Live attenuated HIV vaccines: Predicting the tradeoff between efficacy and safety. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98(6), pp. 3618-3623. PDF

Blower, S.M., Koelle, K., & Lietman, T. (1999) Antibiotic resistance- to treat… Nature Medicine 5(4), p. 358. PDF